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Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Positive Expectations – 12 May 2022

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We expect the price to rise in its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -3.08%. It settled at the price of $7.328 per million British thermal units, after rising in trading yesterday by 4.76%.

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Natural gas futures advanced for the second day in a row on Wednesday amid expectations of higher demand, Nymex June gas futures gained 25.5 cents on the day and settled at $7,640 per million British thermal units. The July contract rose 26.0 cents to $7.727.

Weather On Demand said the forecast for the next two weeks and beyond requires strong seasonal heat and strong cooling demand in large parts of the southern US providing price support.

Meanwhile, despite outages from spring maintenance, US LNG export volumes remained above 12 billion cubic feet per day in May. As European countries pull back from Russian gas imports in the face of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, US supplies are helping to fill the void.

Some analysts said that cutting off the gas pipeline in Ukraine from Russian supplies flowing to European homes is causing concern and may strengthen the overall background for energy prices.

Although the Ukrainian pipeline operator said it would use another hub and not affect the flow, Russian state-owned oil group Gazprom said gas supplies were down 25% from the day before it was sent through Ukraine, according to a report from the Associated Press. The two countries have been at war since the Russian invasion in late February.

Technically, natural gas is rising amid the dominance of the main bullish trend over the medium term along a slope line, supported by its continuous trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. We notice the beginning of a positive crossover on the relative strength indicators.

Therefore, our positive expectations surrounding natural gas continue, and we expect the price to rise in its upcoming trading, especially if its stable above the level of 7.368, and targets the first resistance levels at the price of 8.054.

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