At this point, the market is likely to continue its downward trajectory.
Monero got eviscerated on Monday to show signs of extreme weakness, as the 50-day EMA has offered a bit too much in the way of resistance. Further backing up the 50-day EMA is also the 200-day EMA, both going sideways and showing signs of hesitation. At this point, the market forming the big red candlestick that we have suggests that we are going to continue to go lower.
It should be noted that Bitcoin got hammered, and this has a major knock-on effect when it comes to smaller coins like Monero. The crypto markets in general are in a lot of trouble, and with the strengthening US dollar, we will likely continue to see this happen. The pair of course is quoted in US dollars, so as the US dollar gets stronger, it will take less of them to buy one unit of Monero. Monero and other smaller coins like this have no real shot at appreciating until Bitcoin and Ethereum can turn it around. As things stand right now, they look like they are ready to fall further, which will translate into lower altcoin pricing.
It also is worth noting that the $220 level has offered quite a bit of resistance, as there has been a lot of noise in that general vicinity. If we can break above there, then we may go much higher, but that would take a Herculean effort and exterior influence from Bitcoin. It probably is going to take a couple of good days for the larger coins to make this thing turn around because people will have to feel comfortable stepping further out into the risk spectrum. Monero is pretty far out there, so we would need to see a lot of money come into the crypto markets to think that Monero will pick up.
If we break down below the $180 level, it is likely that we will go looking to reach the $150 level. At this point, the market is likely to continue its downward trajectory, and I think if there is any type of rally, it will more than likely show signs of exhaustion that you can start shorting again. If you are a longer-term believer in Monero, you probably have an opportunity to pick it up at much lower prices.